Melbourne’s property market is starting to feel familiar again, in the way it usually does just before momentum really builds.
There is a quiet confidence returning. Not the chest-beating frenzy of past booms, but the steady sense that the market has found its footing and is moving forward with intent. For buyers and sellers alike, that shift is being felt at kitchen tables, weekend inspections and increasingly busy auction lawns.
Fresh forecasts now suggest new record home prices by 2026, and for Melbourne, that marks an important turning point.
The Mood Has Changed on the Ground
Speak to agents, buyers or mortgage brokers and you hear the same thing. People are no longer waiting for prices to fall. They are asking what they can afford and where they can still get in.
Auction crowds are thicker. Open homes feel busier. Buyers who once took weeks to decide are now making calls within days. It is not frantic, but it is purposeful.
Economists are tipping capital-city home prices to rise around 6 to 8 per cent nationally in 2026, with Melbourne expected to track slightly lower at around 5 to 7 per cent. On paper, that might look modest. In reality, it is enough to push prices beyond previous highs and remind buyers how quickly the gap can widen once growth resumes.
People Are Coming Back to Melbourne
At the heart of this shift is people. Melbourne is growing again, and you can feel it.
International arrivals are up, interstate movers are returning, and students and skilled workers are pouring back into the city. Each new arrival needs a place to live, whether that is a rental, a first home or a family upgrade.
At the same time, housing supply remains tight. Builders are cautious, costs are high, and new projects take time. The imbalance is not dramatic, but it is persistent, and over time it pushes prices higher.
Infrastructure Gives Buyers Confidence
Melbourne has always been a city built on long-term thinking, and infrastructure plays a big part in that story.
Projects like the Metro Tunnel and the Suburban Rail Loop are not abstract ideas for buyers. They are tangible improvements that change daily life, shorten commutes and make suburbs more liveable.
Many buyers are choosing locations not just for today, but for what they will look like in five or ten years. That mindset is classic Melbourne, and it is returning.
First-Home Buyers Feel the Pressure Most
For first-home buyers, the improving outlook comes with mixed emotions.
There is optimism that the market feels stable again, but also anxiety about affordability. Saving a deposit is still hard. Competition is growing. Prices are nudging upward just as many feel ready to buy.
As a result, expectations are shifting. Townhouses, units and outer suburbs are no longer second choices. They are sensible first steps. Many buyers know that getting into the market matters more than waiting for the perfect home.
Sellers Are Starting to Smile Again
For homeowners, there is a sense of relief.
After years of uncertainty, buyers are showing urgency again. Well-presented homes are attracting solid interest, and price conversations feel more grounded. Sellers are not testing the market with unrealistic expectations, but they are no longer discounting out of fear.
If forecasts hold, the next couple of years could offer a strong window for those thinking about selling or upgrading.
The Bottom Line
Melbourne’s property market is not roaring back overnight. It is rebuilding, step by step, driven by people, jobs and confidence returning to the city.
Record prices are back in sight, not because of hype, but because demand continues to outpace supply in a city that keeps growing. For buyers, the decision is becoming more personal than analytical.
Wait too long, and the market may move on without you. Act thoughtfully, and Melbourne has a long history of rewarding patience and good choices.
